That would allow NIO to reach out for a midpoint annual target of about 163K for FY23, representing a 33% YoY increase over FY22. Hence, I anticipate Li will likely telegraph a slashed target of at least between 30 to 40% from his initial 250K goal for management to still have some credibility moving ahead. What reality? I highlighted in my previous article that unless we see significant near-term improvement in its deliveries cadence, management could come under tremendous pressure to downgrade its annual target. With NIO needing an average of 29.5K vehicles per month through the end of December 2023, I expect management to face the harsh reality when it reports earnings on June 9. As a result, NIO posted a trailing twelve months or TTM deliveries of 128.5K in May, down from last month's 129.4K. So guess how many vehicles NIO delivered in the first five months of 2023? Just 43.9K vehicles, with an average of 8.77K vehicles per month.Įither CEO William Li and his team overestimated their abilities at the start of 2023, or they really underestimated the competition. NIO's 250K target for FY23 requires the company to deliver an average of about 21K vehicles per month. Management's lofty goal of 250K in deliveries for 2023 looks increasingly unsustainable, with just seven months of the year left. NIO posted 6.15K deliveries in May 2023, down 7.5% MoM. However, NIO and XPeng ( XPEV) have underperformed in their delivery execution significantly, suggesting the competition could squeeze them out. Even EV upstart Li Auto ( LI ) has continued to chart its upward trajectory from its October 2022 lows. On the other hand, investors in China's EV leaders, such as Tesla ( TSLA) and BYD Company ( OTCPK:BYDDF ), have enjoyed their recovery from last year's lows. ( NYSE: NIO) posted its May deliveries scorecard yesterday (June 1), which was a massive disappointment.
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